Recession? Maybe, maybe not? …maybe not yet.
- A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation report for June compelled the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain its brisk pace of policy tightening. The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, which could lead the Fed to reduce its pace of rate increases in September. – Nuveen
- The Q2 earnings reporting season so far reflects a slowing economy, but not a recession. For now, the market seems to be siding with Powell’s view that a soft landing is possible. – Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments.
- Many think the economy is in recession already, because of two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP. But this is a simplified definition. Go to NBER.Org to see the actual definition of recession. A broad array of spending, income, production and jobs data rose in the first six months of 2022. GDP is not a great real-time measure of overall economic activity for many reasons. Jerome Powell does not think the US is in recession, and neither do we. What we do know is that inflation is still extremely high and the only way to get it down and keep it down is by slowing money growth. – Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, First Trust
As always, we continue to believe that one’s circumstances and risk profile should determine the appropriate mix of investments, and not media headlines. Please contact us if you ever have any questions or concerns about your accounts or any news you hear.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, asset class, or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels. Information in this commentary is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.